Spatial planning in the face of flood risk: Between inertia and transition

Given the greater risk of flooding in cities due to climate change, spatial planning systems are increasingly expected to contribute to flood resilience. However, incorporating expanded adaption measures in conventional planning practices remains a major challenge due to institutional barriers. Based on the theories of historical institutionalism in relation to path divergence, this paper aims to understand the factors which determine the fate of innovations and departures from established practice. Using Guangzhou as a case study, the paper traces the history of the city's struggle against flooding from the 1920s onwards, building on documentary analysis, mapping and interviews. The findings highlight a deeply rooted attachment to engineering-based solutions to tackle flood risk. It also indicates that departing from an established path to embed nature-based and non-structural solutions in the planning system is more likely to take place in response to changing socioeconomic needs and strong institutional support for changes, rather than in response to major flooding events. These findings provide lessons for policymakers and urban planners seeking to enact new policies to enhance flood resilience in spatial planning.