Debris Propogation Following a Spacecraft Mishap at the Collinear Earth-Moon Lagrange Points

The theoretical analysis of the motion of space debris generated by a catastrophic spacecraft mishap in the vicinity of the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L-1 and L-2 is presented with a focus on the potential debris risks to notional cislunar spacecraft. The research develops a model for the masses and velocities of particles generated by a catastrophic spacecraft mishap, utilizes a four-body trajectory model to propagate the resulting debris, then applies a probabilistic survivability model to quantify risks to notional spacecraft in a variety of initial cislunar orbits. These notional spacecraft include NASA's proposed Lunar Gateway, a spacecraft near L-1, a spacecraft near L-2, and a spacecraft conducting a low-energy transfer to the Moon. Overall, the risks are very low, but potentially problematic accumulation of debris was observed near the Moon and in the manifolds of the Earth-Moon system, especially when the mishap occurs at L-1. Overall, research into collinear Lagrange point debris enhances operational planning for future Lagrange point space missions and understanding of the debris-related consequences of mishaps in cislunar space.