A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

被引：11

作者：

Winkler, Julie A. ^{[1
]}

Thornsbury, Suzanne ^{[2
]}

Artavia, Marco ^{[3
]}

Chmielewski, Frank-M ^{[4
]}

Kirschke, Dieter ^{[3
]}

Lee, Sangjun ^{[2
]}

Liszewska, Malgorzata ^{[5
]}

Loveridge, Scott ^{[2
]}

Tan, Pang-Ning ^{[6
]}

Zhong, Sharon ^{[1
]}

Andresen, Jeffrey A. ^{[1
]}

Black, J. Roy ^{[2
]}

Kurlus, Robert ^{[7
]}

Nizalov, Denys ^{[8
]}

Olynk, Nicole ^{[2
]}

Ustrnul, Zbigniew ^{[9
]}

Zavalloni, Costanza ^{[10
]}

Bisanz, Jeanne M. ^{[1
]}

Bujdoso, Geza ^{[11
]}

Fusina, Lesley ^{[1
]}

Henniges, Yvonne ^{[4
]}

Hilsendegen, Peter ^{[12
]}

Lar, Katarzyna ^{[7
]}

Malarzewski, Lukasz ^{[13
]}

Moeller, Thordis ^{[14
]}

Murmylo, Roman ^{[8
]}

Niedzwiedz, Tadeusz ^{[13
]}

Nizalova, Olena ^{[8
]}

Prawiranata, Haryono ^{[1
]}

Rothwell, Nikki ^{[15
]}

van Ravensway, Jenni ^{[1
]}

von Witzke, Harald ^{[14
]}

Woods, Mollie ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Michigan State Univ, Dept Geog, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[2] Michigan State Univ, Dept Agr Food & Resource Econ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[3] Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Policy, Berlin, Germany

[4] Humboldt Univ, Fac Agr & Hort, Berlin, Germany

[5] Univ Warsaw, Interdisciplinary Ctr Math & Computat Modelling, Warsaw, Poland

[6] Michigan State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[7] Poznan Univ Life Sci, Dept Pomol, Poznan, Poland

[8] Kyiv Sch Econ, Kyiv Econ Inst, Kiev, Ukraine

[9] Jagiellonian Univ, Dept Climatol, Krakow, Poland

[10] Univ Udine, Dept Agr & Environm Sci, I-33100 Udine, Italy

[11] Res Inst Fruit Growing & Ornamentals, Budapest, Hungary

[12] DLR Rheinpfalz, Oppenheim, Germany

[13] Univ Silesia, Dept Climatol, Sosnowiec, Poland

[14] Humboldt Univ, Dept Int Agr Trade & Dev, Berlin, Germany

[15] Michigan State Univ, NW Hort Res Stn, Traverse City, MI 49684 USA

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2010年 / 103卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

GREAT-LAKES REGION; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CHANGE SCENARIOS; FUTURE CLIMATE; WINTER-WHEAT; IMPACTS; UNCERTAINTY; MODELS; SIMULATION;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices An important component of the framework is the assessment of the "metauncertainty" arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems

引用

页码：445 / 470

页数：26

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