Assessing the Effectiveness of Administrative District Realignments Based on a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model

The long-term effects of administrative division adjustments on economic development in Dalian City, China, is presently unclear. Therefore, we employed a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to construct an index assessment system using the annual number of newly registered enterprises as the dependent variable. We empirically studied the effects of administrative division adjustments of townships in Dalian City from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that: (i) adjustments in townships administrative divisions negatively affected regional enterprise concentrations and economic development in general, whereas industrial and transportation factors demonstrated positive effects to variable degrees, and the effects of policy, location, and population factors were not significant. (ii) Over time, the effects of townships administrative division adjustments changed from positive to negative, and the negative effects displayed an increasing trend, revealing that (iii) the effect of administrative division adjustments in Dalian City was positive and negative over time. This further reveals the objective problem that administrative division adjustment in recent years was effective over the short term, but not over the long term. (iv) During the study period, administrative division adjustments positively affected regional enterprise concentrations and economic development solely during a short time frame and in a small geographical area. However, its negative effects increased extensively, which infers that maintaining a relatively stable administrative division is more beneficial for promoting economic development in Dalian City.