Application of decision trees to the analysis of soil radon data for earthquake prediction

被引：85

作者：

Zmazek, B ^{[1
]}

Todorovski, L ^{[1
]}

Dzeroski, S ^{[1
]}

Vaupotic, J ^{[1
]}

Kobal, I ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Jozef Stefan Inst, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia

来源：

APPLIED RADIATION AND ISOTOPES | 2003年 / 58卷 / 06期

关键词：

radon in soil gas; environmental parameters; earthquakes; correlation; regression trees; forecasting;

D O I：

10.1016/S0969-8043(03)00094-0

中图分类号：

O61 [无机化学];

学科分类号：

070301 ; 081704 ;

摘要：

Different regression methods have been used to predict radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e. barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. Analyses of the radon data from three stations in the Krsko, basin, Slovenia, have shown that model trees outperform other regression methods. A model has been built which predicts radon concentration with a correlation of 0.8, provided it is influenced only by the environmental parameters. In periods with seismic activity this correlation is much lower. This decrease in predictive accuracy appears 1-7 days before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8-3.3. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：697 / 706

页数：10

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