Understanding and managing connected extreme events

被引:342
|
作者
Raymond, Colin [1 ,2 ]
Horton, Radley M. [3 ]
Zscheischler, Jakob [4 ,5 ]
Martius, Olivia [4 ,6 ]
AghaKouchak, Amir [7 ,8 ]
Balch, Jennifer [9 ,10 ]
Bowen, Steven G. [11 ]
Camargo, Suzana J. [3 ]
Hess, Jeremy [12 ,13 ]
Kornhuber, Kai [3 ,14 ]
Oppenheimer, Michael [15 ,16 ]
Ruane, Alex C. [17 ]
Wahl, Thomas [18 ,19 ]
White, Kathleen [20 ]
机构
[1] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Earth Sci Div, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
[2] Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10032 USA
[3] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA
[4] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
[5] Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland
[6] Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Mobiliar Lab Nat Risks, Bern, Switzerland
[7] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA
[8] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA
[9] Univ Colorado, CIRES, Earth Lab, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[10] Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[11] Aon, Catastrophe Insight Div, Chicago, IL USA
[12] Univ Washington, Sch Publ Hlth, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[13] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Seattle, WA USA
[14] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA
[15] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[16] Princeton Univ, Sch Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[17] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[18] Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816 USA
[19] Univ Cent Florida, Natl Ctr Integrated Coastal Res, Orlando, FL 32816 USA
[20] US Army, Corps Engineers, Washington, DC 20310 USA
基金
瑞士国家科学基金会; 美国国家科学基金会; 美国国家航空航天局;
关键词
CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT; STORM-SURGE; DROUGHT; RISK; CHALLENGES; SCIENCE; UNCERTAINTY; LESSONS; POLICY; PRECIPITATION;
D O I
10.1038/s41558-020-0790-4
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Extreme weather and climate events and their impacts can occur in complex combinations, an interaction shaped by physical drivers and societal forces. In these situations, governance, markets and other decision-making structures-together with population exposure and vulnerability-create nonphysical interconnections among events by linking their impacts, to positive or negative effect. Various anthropogenic actions can also directly affect the severity of events, further complicating these feedback loops. Such relationships are rarely characterized or considered in physical-sciences-based research contexts. Here, we present a multidisciplinary argument for the concept of connected extreme events, and we suggest vantage points and approaches for producing climate information useful in guiding decisions about them. The impacts of extreme weather and climate can be amplified by physical interactions among events and across a complex set of societal factors. This Perspective discusses the concept and challenge of connected extreme events, exploring research approaches and decision-making strategies.
引用
收藏
页码:611 / 621
页数:11
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