Forecasting;
Data-driven;
Deep learning;
Oil production;
Pre-salt;
NEURAL-NETWORK;
PREDICTION;
D O I:
10.1016/j.petrol.2021.109937
中图分类号:
TE [石油、天然气工业];
TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号:
0807 ;
0820 ;
摘要:
Production forecasting plays an important role in oil and gas production, aiding engineers to perform field management. However, this can be challenging for complex reservoirs such as the highly heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs from Brazilian Pre-salt fields. We propose a new setup for forecasting multiple outputs using machine-learning algorithms and evaluate a set of deep-learning architectures suitable for time-series forecasting. The setup proposed is called N-th Day and it provides a coherent solution for the problem of forecasting multiple data points in which a sliding window mechanism guarantees there is no data leakage during training. We also devise four deep-learning architectures for forecasting, stacking the layers to focus on different timescales, and compare them with different existing off-the-shelf methods. The obtained results confirm that specific architectures, as those we propose, are crucial for oil and gas production forecasting. Although LSTM and GRU layers are designed to capture temporal sequences, the experiments also indicate that the investigated scenario of production forecasting requires additional and specific structures.
机构:
Housing & Bldg Natl Res Ctr, Construct & Project Management Res Inst, Giza 12311, EgyptHousing & Bldg Natl Res Ctr, Construct & Project Management Res Inst, Giza 12311, Egypt
机构:
Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R ChinaBeijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
Zhao, Yaqing
Tang, Ling
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, 37 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100191, Peoples R ChinaBeijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
Tang, Ling
Yang, Zebin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Hong Kong, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R ChinaBeijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
机构:
Zhejiang Univ, Coll Control Sci & Engn, Inst Ind Proc Control, State Key Lab Ind Control Technol, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R ChinaZhejiang Univ, Coll Control Sci & Engn, Inst Ind Proc Control, State Key Lab Ind Control Technol, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China
Sun, Qingqiang
Ge, Zhiqiang
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Zhejiang Univ, Coll Control Sci & Engn, Inst Ind Proc Control, State Key Lab Ind Control Technol, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R ChinaZhejiang Univ, Coll Control Sci & Engn, Inst Ind Proc Control, State Key Lab Ind Control Technol, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China
机构:
Peking Univ, Coll Engn, ERE, BIC ESAT, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
Peking Univ, Coll Engn, SKLTCS, Beijing 100871, Peoples R ChinaPeking Univ, Coll Engn, ERE, BIC ESAT, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
Xu, Hao
Chang, Haibin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Peking Univ, Coll Engn, ERE, BIC ESAT, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
Peking Univ, Coll Engn, SKLTCS, Beijing 100871, Peoples R ChinaPeking Univ, Coll Engn, ERE, BIC ESAT, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
Chang, Haibin
Zhang, Dongxiao
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Soil & Groundwater Pollut, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
Peng Cheng Lab, Intelligent Energy Lab, Shenzhen 518000, Peoples R ChinaPeking Univ, Coll Engn, ERE, BIC ESAT, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
机构:
Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Xian Int Acad Math & Math Technol, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R ChinaXi An Jiao Tong Univ, Xian Int Acad Math & Math Technol, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
Xu, Zongben
Sun, Jian
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Xian Int Acad Math & Math Technol, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R ChinaXi An Jiao Tong Univ, Xian Int Acad Math & Math Technol, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
机构:
Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden
Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, SwedenStockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden