Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of European Parliament elections across time

被引：142
|
作者：
Hix, Simon [2 ]
Marsh, Michael [1 ]
机构：
[1] Trinity Coll Dublin, Fac Arts Humanities & Social Sci, Dublin 2, Ireland
[2] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Govt, London WC2A 2AE, England
来源：
ELECTORAL STUDIES | 2011年 / 30卷 / 01期
关键词：
Elections; European Union; Second-order; Political behaviour; Parties; Party families; European Parliment; PROTEST; MODEL;
D O I：
10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.017
中图分类号：
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号：
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要：
After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the 'original 10', to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying 'European effects' distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：4 / 15
页数：12
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