Does Austerity Pay Off?

被引：33
|
作者：
Born, Benjamin [1 ,2 ]
Muller, Gernot J. [2 ,3 ]
Pfeifer, Johannes [4 ]
机构：
[1] Frankfurt Sch Finance & Management, Frankfurt, Germany
[2] CEPR, London, England
[3] Univ Tubingen, Tubingen, Germany
[4] Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
来源：
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS | 2020年 / 102卷 / 02期
关键词：
GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS; BUDGET DEFICITS; FISCAL-POLICY; DEBT; SHOCKS; RESPONSES;
D O I：
10.1162/rest_a_00844
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We investigate empirically how fiscal shocks-unanticipated and exogenous changes of government consumption growth-affect the sovereign default premium. For this purpose, we assemble a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. It contains approximately 3,000 observations for the sovereign default premium and three alternative measures of fiscal shocks. We condition our estimates on whether shocks are positive or negative and initial conditions in terms of fiscal stress. An increase of government consumption barely affects the default premium. A reduction raises the premium if fiscal stress is severe but decreases it if initial conditions are benign.
引用
收藏
页码：323 / 338
页数：16
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