WRF-ARW Model for Prediction of High Temperatures in South and South East Regions of Armenia

The ultimate goal of the study is to develop an early warning system for the south and southeast regions of Armenia (11 in total) by defining specific thresholds for issuing alerts for adverse and severe weather phenomena. In the article the high temperature, wind and precipitation weather elements are discussed based on the experiments performed during the summer periods of 2011 and 2014. The system has been implemented based on the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model [1], which is adapted to the territory of Armenia and used for operational weather forecasting. The verification methodology is to analyze the model results against observations received from four ground hydrometeorological stations located in the south and southeast regions of Armenia. The correlation coefficients, standard deviations of the differences and biases are calculated for the air temperature and wind speed and for precipitation amount and yes/no contingency tables are constructed.