China's dash for gas: local challenges and global consequences

The recent 2017-18 "dash for gas" captured global attention, but also exposed critical failings in China's gas market. The 2019 lull imposed by the Government reflects the need to address local challenges. This paper analyzes the prospects for demand growth and assesses the various ways in which that demand can be met. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding demand growth, with cost competitiveness being the determining factor. Equally, although China has significant natural gas reserves, they are largely unconventional and present significant geological and technical challenges; with domestic production growth failing to keep pace as demand import dependence increases. China's gas imports are met by pipeline gas from Central Asia and Myanmar and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from avariety of countries. The Power of Siberia pipeline started deliveries of Russian in late 2019. However, plans to expand Central Asian imports have disappointed and China may agree to asecond pipeline from Russia or increase its LNG imports. Asimple "gas balance model" is used in the final discussion and conclusions to explore future developments and their consequences for global gas security.