Combination Forecast on Health Status of Residents in China

Factor analysis was used to establish the comprehensive evaluation health index. Based on the comprehensive score, GM (1, 1) and curve fitting model were used to predict the health situation of the residents. Then two methods were used to consist of a linear combining forecasting method to predict the health situation. The result is: 1) Composite score of the health and four factor scores were on the rise, indicating that the residents' health has improved continuously. 2) Compared with the other two methods, combination forecast reduces forecasting errors and closer to the actual value. 3) The health of residents will rise continuously from year 2014 to 2016. In conclusion, combination forecast may make full use of the information and improve the prediction precision.