Role of precipitation forcing on the uncertainty of land surface model simulated soil moisture estimates

Land surface processes considerably Influence the global weather and climate patterns which makes its quantification significant to scientists, hydrologists as well as policymakers alike. Considering the lack of available in-situ measurement, retrieval of the land surface fluxes mostly relies on remotely sensed satellite retrieval and through simulations from land surface models (LSMs). Hence, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties present in the output of these land surface models which are mainly due to errors in forcing data, model parameters and model structure. Precipitation is one of the key input forcing data used in LSMs. With the advancement of remote sensing techniques, multiple sources of precipitation products are made available to the user community. This study examines the effect of precipitation uncertainty in LSM simulated soil moisture. For this study, four precipitation products are used namely, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT v7, Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP). These data products are used as meteorological forcing in Noah 3.6 LSM for the simulation of soil moisture. The uncertainty inherent in the precipitation products are examined using two approaches a) By evaluating the precipitation products against the gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation dataset and b) By using the precipitation products for simulating soil moisture outputs. These were validated over the Indian subcontinent using validation data from the European Space Agency-Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) soil moisture and Central Tibetan Plateau Soil Moisture and Temperature Monitoring Network (CTP-SMTMN) dataset for the years 2010 to 2012. The study utilizes various graphical as well as quantitative evaluation methods to determine the best performing precipitation product. Our study indicates that the simulated soil moisture forced with GDAS and MSWEP precipitation product performed consistently superior among all the other simulation outputs over India.