The Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Dynamics of Energy-Related GHG Emissions in the Baltic States

The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) is an essential strategic objective of sustainable energy development in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their growing contribution to the total primary energy supply can significantly facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper provides findings from an in-depth comparative analysis of RES deployment trends during 2010-2019 in the Baltic countries in the context of energy policy documents of the European Union (EU). The dynamics of targeted RES indicators according to the Renewables Directive 2009/28/EC and National Programmes and the role of renewable energies in mitigating climate change are analysed. A key role of the heating and cooling sector in deploying RES is highlighted and a necessity to implement radical changes in the transport sector of the Baltic countries is revealed. The paper examines changes in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impact of driving factors in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method are used for the decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis conducted, the impact of population change, economic growth, decline of energy intensity, RES deployment and reduction of emission intensity on change of GHG emissions in countries of the BSR and, on average, in the EU-27 during 2010-2019 is revealed.