Flood Risk Analysis Based on IOSM

被引：1

作者：

Diao, Yanfang ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Qinghua ^{[1
]}

Chen, Jiayuan ^{[1
]}

Wang, Gang ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Shandong Agr Univ, Coll Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China

来源：

ADVANCES IN HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING, PTS 1 AND 2 | 2012年 / 212-213卷

关键词：

interior-outer set model (IOSM); flood risk; fuzzy risk; possibility-probability distribution (PPD);

D O I：

10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.212-213.710

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Floods are indeed one of the most serious natural hazards for human societies, especially in China. Future flood variations are an issue of great uncertainty, and the risk analysis of floods is absolutely necessary. Based on the fact that floods are influenced by many factors, the occurrence of floods is fuzzy for our perception. Therefore, the interior-outer set model (IOSM) is introduced to calculate the flood fuzzy risk. The risk calculated by this proposed model is a particular case among imprecise probabilities, called possibility-probability distribution (PPD). The feasibility of this method is verified by citing annual maximum flows in Longmen station of Yellow River main stream as an example. The results show that this approach could give a better result to support flood risk management.

引用

页码：710 / 714

页数：5

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