The influence of spatiality on shipping emissions, air quality and potential human exposure in the Yangtze River Delta/Shanghai, China

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the megacity of Shanghai are host to one of the busiest port clusters in the world; the region also suffers from high levels of air pollution. The goal of this study was to estimate the contributions of shipping to regional emissions, air quality, and population exposure and to characterize the importance of the geographic spatiality of shipping lanes and different types of ship-related sources for the baseline year of 2015, which was prior to the implementation of China's Domestic Emission Control Areas (DECAs) in 2016. The WRF-CMAQ model, which combines the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, was used to simulate the influence of coastal and inland-water shipping, port emissions and ship-related cargo transport on air quality and on the population-weighted concentrations (which is a measure of human exposure). Our results showed that the impact of shipping on air quality in the YRD was primarily attributable to shipping emissions within 12 NM (nautical miles) of shore, but emissions coming from the coastal area between 24 and 96 NM still contributed substantially to ship-related PM2.5 concentrations in the YRD. The overall contribution of ships to the PM2.5 concentration in the YRD could reach 4.62 mu g m(-3) in summer when monsoon winds transport shipping emissions onshore. In Shanghai city, inland-water going ships were major contributors (40 %-80 %) to the shipping impact on urban air quality. Given the proximity of inland-water ships to the urban populations of Shanghai, the emissions of inland-water ships contributed more to population-weighted concentrations. These research results provide scientific evidence to inform policies for controlling future shipping emissions; in particular, in the YRD region, expanding the boundary of 12 NM from shore in China's current DECA policy to around 100 NM from shore would include most of shipping emissions affecting air pollutant exposure, and stricter fuel standards could be considered for the ships on inland rivers and other waterways close to residential regions.