Development of an Operational Adequacy Evaluation Framework for Operational Planning of Bulk Electric Power Systems

Proper long-term planning for investment in resources, timely operational planning to prepare resources and to decide on operational strategies, and proper operating decisions to respond to disturbances during real-time system operation are important to supply reliable power to customers as economically as possible. However, existing utility procedures are insufficient to comprehend uncertainties of modern renewable-integrated power systems and to provide suitable quatitative indicators to assist in operational planning. Independent system operators and utilities around the globe are developing new and unique approaches to operational planning to manage rising uncertainties in power generation from renewable sources like wind and PV. It is desirable to establish uniformity in operational adequacy evaluation methods and quantitative metrics applicable to all power systems in the operational planning horizon of days, weeks, or even months. This will help standardize the operational planning methodology and metrics, and simplify implementation of operational strategies. To address this need, this paper presents a probabilistic analytical methodology for operational adequacy evaluation of a bulk power system integrating the concepts of state enumeration and a novel Dynamic System State Probability Evaluation (DSSPE) approach in time series analysis to accommodate the operational as well as network characteristics. The proposed methodology is implemented on a test system to demonstrate operational adequacy-based operational planning, and to analyze the impact of factors such as unit commitment decisions, locational distribution of load, and generation on the operational adequacy of the system.