Probabilistic analyses of tunneling-induced ground movements

Tunneling-induced ground movements are investigated in this paper using both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. The deterministic model is based on three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations using the commercial code FLAC(3D). This model attempts to reproduce some major phenomena during a typical slurry-shield tunnel excavation (ground movements due to the applied face pressure, the overcutting, the shield conicity, the annular void behind the shield, and the grout injection in this void). Moreover, the model provides useful information about the nature and magnitude of the soil movements at the ground surface. A probabilistic study is then undertaken in order to evaluate the impact of the variability of several input variables on the ground movements. An efficient probabilistic method called CSRSM is used to assess this uncertainty propagation. In a last section, the output variables of the model are linked to failure criteria. This allows one to determine probabilities of failure, depending on the probabilistic properties of the input variables and on the admissible threshold of each criterion.