Selecting creep models using Bayesian methods

The development of creep prediction models has been a field of extensive research and many different models have already been proposed. This paper presents an evaluation method of the prediction quality of creep models for specific experimental data. Within the scope of this paper, the model according to Bockhold and the model according to Heidolf are examined. First, the parameters of the models are identified with respect to existing experimental data. This is done using a sampling based approach of Bayesian updating developed by BaA3/4ant and Chern. In extension to the method by BaA3/4ant and Chern, the uncertainty coming from inaccurate measurement data is taken into account in the definition of the likelihood function within the updating algorithm. The more inaccurate the measurements are, the more uncertain the estimated model parameters and model prognoses become. The identification is performed for different short- and long-term creep tests. The intension is not to validate these models intensively, but to evaluate their prognoses for the individually tested creep behavior. The results show that the identifiability of the models' parameters is different for both models and consequently the models prognoses differ in their uncertainties. Second, the models are evaluated using two different strategies: the stochastic model selection according to MacKay, Beck and Yuen based on the Ockham factor, and a comparison of the uncertainties taking into account parameter and model uncertainties. The results of the evaluation of the creep models differ for various experimental tests. Model Heidolf is more flexible and gives a better fit to the data, however, it fails to predict reliable long-term creep deformations using only short-term measurements compared to model Bockhold. Comparing the evaluation methods, the analysis of uncertainties of the creep prognosis proofs to be more stable than the evaluation using the stochastic model selection.