Predicting the occurrence of venous thromboembolism: construction and verification of risk warning model

BackgroundThe onset of venous thromboembolism is insidious and the prognosis is poor. In this study, we aimed to construct a VTE risk warning model and testified its clinical application value.MethodsPreliminary construction of the VTE risk warning model was carried out according to the independent risk warning indicators of VTE screened by Logistic regression analysis. The truncated value of screening VTE was obtained and the model was evaluated. ROC curve analysis was used to compare the test of Caprini risk assessment scale and VTE risk warning model. The cut-off value of the VTE risk warning model was used to evaluate the test effectiveness of the model for VTE patients with validation data set.ResultsThe VTE risk warning model is p=e(x) / (1+ e(x)), x=-4.840+2.557 center dot X-10(1)+1.432 center dot X-14(1)+2.977 center dot X-15(1)+3.445 center dot X-18(1)+1.086 center dot X-25(1)+0.249 center dot X-34+0.282 center dot X-41. ROC curve results show that: AUC (95%CI), cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Youden index, Caprini risk assessment scale is 0.596 (0.552, 0.638), 5, 26.07, 96.50, 61.3%, 0.226, VTE risk warning model is 0.960 (0.940, 0.976), 0.438, 92.61, 91.83, 92.2%, 0.844, respectively, with statistically significant differences (Z=14.521, P<0.0001). The accuracy and Youden index of VTE screening using VTE risk warning model were 81.8 and 62.5%, respectively.ConclusionsVTE risk warning model had high accuracy in predicting VTE occurrence in hospitalized patients. Its test performance was better than Caprini risk assessment scale. It also had high test performance in external population.