MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF UKRAINIAN SHADOW ECONOMY

The article studies the problems of mathematic modelling of the shadow economy of Ukraine from the viewpoint of methods development for quantitative estimation of unshadowing strategies. For the construction of a model the most adequate for the Ukrainian economy, methods of shadow volumes estimation are analyzed - the Gutmann and Tanzi monetary methods; and the authors' approach to estimation of the capitals shadowing level for various economic subjects is offered. The obtained results are used for the construction of a macroeconomic model of the Ukrainian shadow economy for the time period of 1996-2006. The optimal quantity of the model parameters is defined, and the adequacy of the constructed model is analyzed. Using the constructed model, the shadow economy forecast for the time period of January, 2007 - March, 2008 was made, and the obtained results are compared to the actual data. The model is studied from the viewpoint of opportunity of the quantitative analysis oft he managerial decisions concerning the unshadowing of the Ukrainian economy.