Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions: An alternative approach

被引：12
|
作者：
Goldstein, JR [1 ]
机构：
[1] Princeton Univ, Off Populat Res, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
来源：
DEMOGRAPHY | 2002年 / 39卷 / 01期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1353/dem.2002.0004
中图分类号：
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号：
摘要：
In this article, I derive a simple formula for approximating the ultimate size of a population that undergoes a gradual transition to replacement fertility. I model the fertility transition by specifying a linear frontier on the Lexis surface across which a change infertility is instantaneous. Gradual transitions result from variations in the slope of this frontier. This framework can be used to reproduce and understand previous studies of population momentum and gradual transitions.
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页码：65 / 73
页数：9
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