An Improved Risk Analysis Method of Advanced Materials

Most new materials are not mature since there are all kinds of uncertainties due to many factors, such as technical complexity, shifting objectives/scopes, and poor management. Application of a new material means we must accept all opportunities and threats, while it exists a lot of uncertain information in the process of decision making. This paper reviews the traditional methods of risk analysis, such as risk matrix, and introduces uncertain data in decision to describe two attributes of risk -probability and consequence. The data of risk collected is then processed based on prospect theory, take into account the behavior patterns and psychological factors which are not aware of in a traditional approach. At last, an example proves the improved risk analysis method is rational and scientific.