Sensitivity Analysis on Fracturing Pressure Using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

The design of the hydraulic fracturing process is based on a number of analytical and numerical equations that include many variables with considerable uncertainties. The most important design parameters include injection pressure and formation breakdown pressure. The main objective of this paper is to identify which input variables contribute significantly to the calculated pressure uncertainty. This is carried out by the variance-based sensitivity method utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that not all geological and technical parameters have the same influence on the quantitative change of investigated parameters, which has an important significance in hydraulic equipment design for proper job performance.