Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

被引：20

作者：

Jones, A. E. ^{[1
]}

Morse, A. P. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2012年 / 39卷

关键词：

VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES; ANOPHELES-GAMBIAE; AQUATIC STAGES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SYSTEM; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; CIRCULATION; HIGHLANDS; PROJECT;

D O I：

10.1029/2012GL054040

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the high-lands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months. Citation: Jones, A. E., and A. P. Morse (2012), Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23707, doi:10.1029/2012GL054040.

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