Statistical theory of reversals in two-dimensional confined turbulent flows

It is shown that the truncated Euler equation (TEE), i.e., a finite set of ordinary differential equations for the amplitude of the large-scale modes, can correctly describe the complex transitional dynamics that occur within the turbulent regime of a confined two-dimensional flow obeying Navier-Stokes equation (NSE) with bottom friction and a spatially periodic forcing. The random reversals of the NSE large-scale circulation on the turbulent background involve bifurcations of the probability distribution function of the large-scale circulation. We demonstrate that these NSE bifurcations are described by the related TEE microcanonical distribution which displays transitions from Gaussian to bimodal and broken ergodicity. A minimal 13-mode model reproduces these results.