Prediction of Inter-Provincial Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China: Based on Logistic Model

Under the assumption that carbon emissions are proportional to energy consumption, we collect some data on energy consumption and cement production to calculate the gross carbon emissions of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2002 to 2011. A logistic model is built to estimate the carbon emissions. Based on this, the carbon emissions of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2020 are estimated, and the carbon intensity that can be reduced is also calculated. The conclusion is that China may achieve the goal to cut the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40 similar to 45% by 2020 off 2005 level when the economic growth is over 8%. At the end, we put forward some comprehensive suggestions on mitigation and prospected the outlook of carbon emissions.