Prediction of central lymph node metastasis in 392 patients with cervical lymph node-negative papillary thyroid carcinoma in Eastern China

Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is common in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). The aim of the present study was to investigate the risk factors associated with CLNM in clinical lateral cervical lymph node-negative (cN0) PTMC in Eastern China. A total of 392 patients with confirmed PTMC by histological examination who underwent thyroidectomy and central neck lymph node dissection (CND) between May 2011 and October 2012 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (Wenzhou, China) were enrolled. The clinicopathological and nitrasonographic data from the patients were analyzed retrospectively. A scoring system was developed on the basis of independent predictive factors for CLNM. Male gender, age <45 years, maximum tumor diameter >5 mm, lower lobe location, multifocal carcinoma with total tumor diameter >10 mm and extracapsular spread were independent predictive factors for CLNM according to logistic regression analysis. The clinicopathological score was statistically significant, with an index point indicating CLNM with 86.2% sensitivity and 70.4% specificity. The findings of the present study indicate that CND may be recommended to be routinely performed when the clinicopathological index point >= 2.