A study of heavy rainfall events during the great midwest flood of 1993

A synoptic-dynamic climatology was constructed using all 24-h 2-in. (50.8 mm) or greater rainfall events in nine states affected by heavy rains and flooding from June through September 1993 using 6- or 12-h gridded analyses from the Regional Data Assimilation System and geostationary satellite imagery. Each of the 85 events was assigned a category (0-4) based on the areal coverage of the 3-in. (76.2 mm) or greater observed precipitation isohyet. A variety of meteorological fields and rules of thumb used by forecasters at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center are investigated that may help identify the most likely location and scale of a convective precipitation event. The heaviest rain usually fell to the north (downwind) of the axis of highest 850-mb winds and moisture flux in an area of 850-mb warm temperature and equivalent potential temperature advection. The rainfall maximum also usually occurred to the north or northeast of the axis of highest 850-mb equivalent potential temperature. The scale and intensity of the rainfall appeared to be related to 1) the magnitude of the warm advection, 2) the 1000-500-mb mean relative humidity, 3) the breadth of the axis of stronger values of moisture transport feeding northward into a surface boundary, 4) the strength of low-level moisture flux convergence, and 5) the length of the low-level moisture flux convergence that was aligned along the mean flow upstream from the location of the rainfall maximum. The latter finding suggests that propagation plays an important role in modulating the scale and intensity of rainfall events.