Statistical Analysis of Dangerous Chemical Accidents in China

This paper adopts hierarchical cluster and exponential smoothing methods to analyze dangerous chemical accidents involving storage, transportation, and fireworks, and also total chemical accident deaths in China. The conclusions are that the cluster method is significant to divide category and classification. The exponential smoothing method appears to be sound, robust, and informative. The accidents are more serious in the southeast than in the northeast and the west. The management levels of dangerous chemical industry in different regions of China are basically consistent. It can be predicted that there is a sharp-rising trend of the dangerous chemical accidents from 2005 to 2011. The biggest risk of dangerous chemical accidents will be mainly in southeastern provinces. Along with the number of petroleum chemical enterprises more and more, there will be an eruption tendency of the accidents in the southeast provinces in China.