The Application of Traffic Simulation Model to Predict Initiation and Progression of Crack for Flexible Pavements

In the life-cycle prediction of road pavement, it needs the model that should be able to predict the expected change of condition in the future. The model should consider current condition, pavement strength and age characteristics, environment, incremental time and incremental traffic. The aim of this study is to application the traffic simulation model for predicting initiation and progression of crack on road pavement. The aim of the study can be achieved by developing a computer simulation model that can predict road deterioration. The research develop coefficient of each models that agree with local condition based on observed data that collected for 1.5 years. These models are able to predict progression of cracking with R-2=0.5925 to 0.8765 more appropriate than the existing model (R-2=0.304 to 0.314). The coefficient of crack initiation model has difference with the existing models that are 5.7% to 20% for asphalt mix on asphalt pavement, 2.8% to 14% for asphalt mix on stabilized base, 1.6% to 2.2% for asphalt mix on granular base. While progression of cracking are 5.7% to 20% for asphalt mix on asphalt pavement, 2.8% up to 14% for asphalt mix on stabilized base, 1.6% to 2.2% for asphalt mix on granular base. In addition, the cracking model can be used as guidance for maintenance intervention criteria. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of Beijing Jiaotong University [BJU], Systems Engineering Society of China (SESC)