A Bayesian Network Model under Group Decision Making for Evaluating IT Outsourcing Risk

The risk management of IT outsourcing (ITO) has a significant influence on the success of outsourcing. The accuracy of risk assessment directly impacts the effectiveness of risk management. For the characteristics of ITO, a Bayesian network method for evaluating ITO risk is proposed in this article. The Interpretive structural modeling is used to construct the network structure diagram and risk probabilities are calculated by Bayesian inference. In order to reduce the uncertainty and minimize the partiality of a single expert, linguistic variables are adopted to quantify the conditional probabilities of the network nodes and the fuzzy Delphi approach is used to integrate experts' opinions. At last, an example is given to illustrate the validity of this method proposed in this paper.