Urban Building Energy Modelling for the Renovation Wave: A Bespoke Approach Based on EPC Databases

In 2020, domestic buildings represented 27% of the energy consumption in the European Union. The EC Renovation Wave concluded that the annual renovation rate should be doubled, from 1% to 2%, over the next decade in order to meet the 2030 energy efficiency targets. Funding programs are being implemented at national and European levels to accelerate this process. These aim to prioritize large-scale interventions and the most efficient energy conservation measures by including strict performance targets as eligibility conditions. However, these programs are coordinated by local authorities, and they struggle to generate reliable energy estimates for large areas, not least predict potential savings at both aggregated and individual levels. This paper presents a bespoke energy retrofit analysis methodology based on urban building energy modelling, which is defined and calibrated with the Energy Performance Certificate Database. We apply this method to the case study Barrio das Flores. The model adopts a hybrid approach, defining and simulating representative typologies to extrapolate the results to the whole district according to each dwelling's specific parameters. This methodology will be used to predict the potential energy savings in the study area and support the grant application for the funding renovation program.