Can inter-provincial transmission reduce regional carbon emissions? Evidence from China

Plagued by worsening pollution in load centers along the eastern coastal regions such as Beijing-Tianjin -Hebei, China is reducing local coal-fired power plants in those regions and relying more on inter-regional power transmission. In recent years, China has accelerated the construction of the West-East Electricity Transmission Project and planned and constructed a number of Ultra-high Voltage (UHV) transmission lines. However, how the impact of inter-regional transmission on carbon emissions needs empirical verification. This paper aims to study the carbon emission reduction effect of inter-regional transmission under nested models of the spatial econometric model for panel data. The empirical results show that although the non-dynamic spatial econometric analysis can find the carbon emission reduction effect of inter-provincial transmission, the long-term effect obtained by the dynamic spatial econometric analysis indicates that the inter-provincial transmission can bring about a slight increase in carbon emissions. The inter-provincial power transmission needs to be supported by sustainable share growth of renewable energy to achieve the targeted mitigation of carbon emissions.