Temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions and their impact on functional zoning: evidence from Hubei Province

IntroductionTo investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural carbon emissions and carbon absorption, analyse the spatiotemporal variations in the carbon balance, delineate carbon-offsetting regions, and formulate low-carbon development strategies tailored to various major functional zones, this study aims to promote coordinated regional ecological and environmental governance.MethodsThis study takes a perspective based on major functional zones, focuses on 17 cities in Hubei Province, studies the spatiotemporal variations in agricultural carbon budgets and carbon offsets in each city from the perspective of functional zoning and proposes a spatial optimization scheme for reducing carbon emissions.Results and discussionThe results show that both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon absorption in Hubei Province gradually increased, although the agricultural carbon budgets varied significantly among cities. Arable lands were the main agricultural carbon sinks in Hubei Province. Overall, carbon emissions exhibited declining core-periphery zonation, with Xiangyang, Jingzhou, and Huanggang serving as the centre (high emissions) and the cities of Shennongjia, Enshi, and Yichang serving as the periphery (low emissions). Carbon absorption displayed a U-shaped distribution, with high values in the east, south, and west and low values in the centre and north. The cities of Yichang, Jingmen, and Huanggang were the peak carbon sink areas. In recent years, the coordination between the agricultural carbon emissions and carbon budgets in Hubei Province has gradually improved, and agricultural carbon absorption and emissions have become increasingly balanced. Seven carbon-positive, five carbon-neutral, and five carbon-negative areas were identified in the province. Based on these findings, differentiated carbon emission reduction strategies were proposed to promote coordinated and low-carbon agriculture.