TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN ANHUI PROVINCE, CHINA

Agricultural carbon emissions are crucial for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China. Based on the emission factor method, ecological pressure coefficient and grey correlation model, the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province and their influencing factors are explored. The following results are obtained: From 2001 to 2022, the agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province showed a trend of decreasing - increasing - declining- increasing, especially from 2001 to 2007, with an average annual decline of 4.58%. The agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a trend of fluctuating decline; the agricultural carbon absorption was also increasing year by year. The total agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province basically decreased from north to south, and the carbon emission intensity of traditional agricultural areas was higher than that of areas with good industrial base. The spatial distribution of ecological pressure coefficients of carbon emissions was basically consistent with the distribution trend of total carbon emissions, and the pressure coefficients were between 0.7 and 1.8. Grey correlation analysis showed that the core affecting factors of agricultural carbon emissions were agricultural industrial structure, agricultural production scale, scientific and technological factors, economic development and agricultural employees.