Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run

被引：1

作者：

Reinermann, Holger ^{[1
]}

Best, Fabio ^{[1
]}

Huber, Sascha ^{[1
]}

Welz, Robert ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] JGU Mainz, Mainz, Germany

来源：

ELECTORAL STUDIES | 2023年 / 86卷

关键词：

Incumbency advantage; Candidate-centered voting; Political judgment; Dynamic political evaluations; Personalization of politics; Political leaders; Political candidates; German Federal Election 2021; VOTING-BEHAVIOR; PERSONAL VOTE; CANDIDATES; ADVANTAGE; CHANCELLOR; CONTRAST; ASSIMILATION; POLITICIANS; SELECTION; SCANDALS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102698

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

The German federal election 2021 was remarkable partly because the incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, albeit still popular, was not running for re-election and did not figure prominently in the campaign. Drawing on the literatures on incumbency advantage, cost of ruling, and candidate-centered voting, we analyze whether an outgoing incumbent might still have an effect on voters' attitudes and behavior. We distinguish two phenomena: First, we expect the effects of outgoing incumbents on electoral behavior to wash off during campaigns, as voters get more informed and adjust to new candidates. Second, if the incumbent's successor as front-runner of their party manages to link themselves to their predecessor, the incumbent's reputation might rub off on the new candidate, possibly indirectly enhancing electoral fortunes of the party. We examine the dynamics of these phenomena using data from the panel and RCS components of the German Longitudinal Election Study and a large-scale survey experiment.

引用

页数：10