Long-term dynamics of wild primate populations across forests with contrasting protection in Tanzania

Anthropogenic activities driving tropical forests' loss imperil global biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services. In this context, systematic monitoring programs evaluating wildlife trends are essential. Non-human primates are relevant conservation targets since they represent vital components of tropical forests by serving as pollinators and seed dispersers. Here, we present primate group counts data collected over 19 years in a primate hotspot in Tanzania. We analyzed data with a hierarchical dynamic model accounting for imperfect detection that estimates local group abundance and temporal rates of change, to assess whether habitat protection explained trends of the arboreal and diurnal Peters' Angola colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus), Udzungwa red colobus (Piliocolobus gordonorum), and Tanzania Sykes' monkey (Cercopithecus mitis subsp. moloneyi). We targeted populations occurring in two forest blocks with contrasting protection regimes, with one block impacted by targeted poaching of the two Colobus species. We found that these latter species were much less abundant in the more human impacted forest, underwent a rapid decline, and subsequently remained at low abundance and without signs of recovery once this forest was granted greater protection. Instead, Sykes' abundance did not differ between forests, and improved protection was associated with a slight increase in abundance. Age class composition for social groups of both Colobus species differed between forests, indicating altered births and survivorship rates in the impacted forest. Results suggest that targeted hunting can prevent recovery for several years and even after increased habitat protection. Our approach appears valuable to monitor population dynamics over the long term, highlighting species-specific variations in both vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance and recovery patterns in primate populations.