A healthful plant-based diet is associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk via improved metabolic state and organ function: A prospective cohort study

Background: Plant-based diets are becoming increasingly popular due to favourable environmental footprints and have been associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Here, we investigated the potential mechanisms to explain the lower T2DM risk observed among individuals following plant-based diets. Methods: Prospective data from the UK Biobank, a cohort study of participants aged 40 to 69 years at baseline, was evaluated. Associations between healthful and unhealthful plant-based indices (hPDI and uPDI) and T2DM risk were analysed by multivariable Cox regression models, followed by causal mediation analyses to investigate which cardiometabolic risk factors explained the observed associations.Results: Of 113,097 study participants 2,628 developed T2DM over 12 years of follow-up. Participants with the highest hPDI scores (Quartile 4) had a 24 % lower T2DM risk compared to those with the lowest scores (Quartile 1) [Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.76, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.68-0.85]. This association was mediated by a lower BMI (proportion mediated: 28 %), lower waist circumference (28 %), and lower concentrations of HBA1c (11 %), triglycerides (9 %), alanine aminotransferase (5 %), gamma glutamyl transferase (4 %), C-reactive protein (4 %), insulin-like growth factor 1 (4 %), cystatin C (4 %) and urate (4 %). Higher uPDI scores were associated with a 37 % higher T2DM risk [HR: 1.37, 95 % CI:1.22-1.53], with higher waist circumference (proportion mediated: 17 %), BMI (7 %), and higher concentrations of triglycerides (13 %) potentially playing mediating roles.Conclusion: Healthful plant-based diets may protect against T2DM via lower body fatness, but also via normo-glycaemia, lower basal inflammation as well as improved kidney and liver function.