Impact of land use changes on uncertainty in ecosystem services under different future scenarios: A case study of Zhang-Cheng area, China

Human-environment interactions are often directly reflected in land use changes. Subsequently, researching the impact of land use change on the uncertainty in ecosystem services under different scenarios can help convey how human-environment interactions create uncertainty in such services, thereby promoting the rational development of territorial spatial planning. Taking the Zhangjiakou-Chengde (abbreviated as "Zhang-Cheng") area in China as a case study, this research used the CA-Markov model to predict future spatial distribution of land use types under three scenarios in 2030, 2040, and 2050: business as usual, cropland protection, and ecological security. It employed the InVEST model to evaluate three major ecosystem services of the study area, including carbon storage, habitat quality, and soil conservation. Next, the uncertainty in ecosystem services under different policy scenarios was measured using the coefficients of variation. The results demonstrated that built-up land would continue to expand significantly under the business-as-usual scenario, with substantial increases in cropland under the cropland protection scenario and forestland under the ecological security scenario. In 2050, carbon storage, habitat quality, and soil conservation under the ecological security scenario will be the highest at 901.39 x 105 Mg, 0.7240, and 458226.94 t, which are 1.10, 1.03 and 1.26 times higher than that of 2020, respectively. In each simulation scenario, the uncertainty in habitat quality will be higher than that in carbon storage and soil conservation. Under the ecological security scenario, uncertainty in both carbon storage and habitat quality will be the lowest compared to the other two scenarios. The greater the change in land use area, the higher the uncertainty in ecosystem services. In addition, uncertainty in ecosystem services is associated with changes in land types. Specifically, increases or decreases in water lead to high uncertainty in carbon storage, changes in built-up land result in high uncertainty in habitat quality, while changes in land types have small effects on uncertainty in soil conservation. Simulating future land use change dynamics and exploring ecosystem services and their uncertainties under different scenarios are conducive to constructing reasonable land use patterns and providing decision-making references for regional sustainable development.