Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang and Its Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis

To comprehend the potential impacts of both natural phenomena and human activities on ecological risk, a thorough examination of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) in arid river basins is imperative. This investigation holds paramount importance for the proactive prevention and mitigation of LER, as well as for the preservation of ecological security within these basins. In this scholarly inquiry, the Kriya River Basin (KRB) serves as the focal point of analysis. Leveraging three historical land use and land cover (LULC) images and incorporating a diverse array of drivers, encompassing both natural and anthropogenic factors, the study employs the PLUS model to forecast the characteristics of LULC changes within the basin under three distinct scenarios projected for the year 2030. Concurrently, the research quantitatively assesses the ecological risks of the basin through the adoption of the Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment (LERA) methodology and the Spatial Character Analysis (SCA) methodology. The results showed the following: (1) The study area is primarily composed of grassland and unused land, which collectively account for over 97% of the total land. However, there has been a noticeable rise in cropland and considerable deterioration in grassland between 2000 and 2020. The key observed change in LULC involves the transformation of grassland and unused land into cropland, forest, and construction land. (2) The overall LER indices for 2000, 2010, and 2020 are 0.1721, 0.1714, and 0.16696, respectively, showing strong positive spatial correlations and increasing autocorrelations over time. (3) Over time, human activities have come to exert a greater influence on LER compared to natural factors between 2000 and 2020. (4) In the natural development scenario (NDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS), the LER of KRB experienced notable variations in the diverse 2030 scenarios. Notably, the CPS exhibited the highest proportion of low-risk areas, whereas Daryaboyi emerged as the focal point of maximum vulnerability. These findings offer theoretical and scientific support for sustainable development planning in the watershed.