Multi-Scenario Simulation of Future Land Use in the Beijiang River Basin Under Multidimensional Ecological Constraints

This study takes the Beijiang River Basin in Guangdong Province as an example, examining the changes in land usage throughout time and space between 1980 and 2020. Using multidimensional ecosystem service functions and the loop theory, this study constructs ecological constraints (ES) for the Beijiang River Basin. Based on these ecological constraints, an ES-PLUS model is developed to simulate future land cover changes under multiple scenarios in the Beijiang River Basin by 2050. The results indicate the following: (1) Currently, the major land use types in the Beijiang River Basin are forest, cropland, and grassland, accounting for over 95% of the area. Significant changes in land use were observed between 1980 and 2020, including the severe degradation of forests and grasslands, a notable expansion of construction land, intense human-land conflicts, and the highest single land use dynamic degree for unused land at 5.67%, with a comprehensive land use dynamic degree of 0.18%. (2) In the four development scenarios of the Beijiang River Basin in 2050, construction land increased by 32.97%, 74.75%, 26.01%, and 45.50%, respectively, suggesting that ecological constraints as flexible constraint spaces can effectively control the disorderly expansion of construction land. Therefore, formulating ecological protection policies, optimizing the land use structure in the Beijiang River Basin, and constructing ecological sources and corridors in line with the distribution of urban areas, roads, and railroads in the basin may offer direction for the best use of land resources, the preservation of the environment, and sustainable growth in the Beijiang River Basin.