Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables

The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate-based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo-absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4-fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches.