What drives the agricultural carbon emissions for low-carbon transition? Evidence from China

This study investigates the factors behind carbon emissions in the agricultural sector and their role in facilitating a transition towards low-carbon agriculture, with a focus on empirical evidence from China. By analyzing data from China, a country undergoing significant agricultural and environmental transformations, this research sheds light on the key determinants of agricultural carbon emissions. The findings reveal a concerning trend of increasing agricultural carbon emissions in China over the past 22 years. Despite efforts to promote sustainability and reduce emissions, the data underscores the complexity of mitigating carbon output from agriculture. A prominent revelation from the study is the substantial regional disparities in emissions. Eastern provinces lead in emissions, while the Western region faces its unique challenges, often related to grain production. This emphasizes the need for region-specific strategies in the transition towards a low-carbon agricultural sector. Across regions, chemical fertilizers consistently emerge as the primary driver of agricultural carbon emissions. This highlights the critical role of optimizing and regulating chemical fertilizer use to achieve emission reduction goals. At the national level, economic factors, as indicated by GDP, and the power of agricultural machinery play a substantial role in emissions. This underscores the challenge of balancing economic growth with sustainable agricultural practices during the low-carbon transition. Rural electricity consumption significantly influences emissions, particularly in the Eastern region. Enhancing energy efficiency in rural areas becomes a key aspect of emissions reduction strategies. The disparities in emission factors among regions suggest that mitigation efforts should be tailored to address unique challenges. Eastern provinces may emphasize fertilizer regulation, while the Western region should balance grain production with sustainability goals. This study provides valuable evidence for guiding China's low-carbon transition in agriculture. It underscores the need for comprehensive policies that consider regional variations and the complex interplay of economic, agricultural, and environmental factors.