Climate change vulnerability and conflicts in Africa: evidence from the migrations channel

In a context marked by the intensification of climate change as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of violent conflicts in Africa, this paper analyses the effects of vulnerability to climate change on conflict through the channel of migratory movements. Given the complex causal relationships between the variables, and to distinguish between their direct and indirect effects on conflicts, we employ structural equation modeling on a sample of 37 African countries observed between 1995 and 2017. The results show that vulnerability to climate change has both direct and indirect negative effects on internal conflict in Africa. An increase in vulnerability to climate change reduces the net stock of international migrants; while the net stock of migrants increases internal conflict. These effects are robust regardless of the components of the climate change vulnerability index considered and vary, however, according to the official language spoken and the level of development. In English-speaking and low-developing countries, the effects of climate change vulnerability on conflict remain negative, while in French- and Arabic-speaking as well as in more developed African countries, climate change vulnerability indirectly increases conflict through migration.In a given territory, the implementation of specific adaptation measures helps to reduce the level of vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, the increase in conflicts caused by a reduction in vulnerability to climate change can be mitigated by a decrease in migratory movements through a better allocation of natural resources such as arable land and an increase in gross domestic product per capita.