Spatio-temporal risk analysis of agriculture and meteorological droughts in rainfed Potohar, Pakistan, using remote sensing and geospatial techniques

Droughts of various types are considered as a major threat to rainfed agriculture, because agricultural production is dependent on the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall. The rainfed regions of Pakistan, such as Potohar, have experienced several instances of drought since 2000. The most drought-affected staple crop of the region is wheat, which ultimately affects regional food security. In this study, we examine the agricultural and the meteorological droughts in the Potohar region during 2000-2020, to create a drought risk map. This region comprises four districts, namely Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum and Rawalpindi. First, the agricultural and meteorological drought severity maps were created using rainfall data (meteorological data) and vegetation indices for three different periods (i.e., drought year, moderate drought year and normal year). The agricultural drought patterns and intensity were identified and evaluated using the MODIS products MOD09A1 and MOD11A2, while the meteorological droughts were identified using CHRIPS rainfall data. Afterwards, a combined drought risk map was generated by integrating the agricultural and meteorological adrought severity maps using a weighted overlay analysis. This drought risk map showed that Attock and Rawalpindi were expeiencing slight to no drought conditions, whereas the southwestern and central parts of Chakwal showed moderate drought conditions. Similarly, the western parts of Jhelum faced moderate drought conditions. Thus, the combined drought risk map may be a useful guide for decision makers in the local and provincial government. Using this map, they can identify adaptation practices in the drought-prone areas of this region for enhancing agricultural productivity.