Potential of Himalayan wetlands for mountain disaster risk reduction under climate change

Mountain glaciers are retreating almost everywhere in the world, including the Himalayas, due to melting under temperature increase and climate change. Disasters like floods and landslides become uncertain and severe in the Himalayas, which could cause property damage, life devastation and biodiversity disturbances. Himalayan wetlands that support mountain ecosystem services are also vulnerable to climate change. It is likely that with a warming climate, new natural wetlands may develop that can change the risk of mountain disasters by acting as natural resilient infrastructure. This study aimed to estimate the probability of new wetlands and their potential role in disaster risk reduction. A maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the impact of climate change on glacier melting, new wetland development and the wetlands' potential for reducing disaster risks. Spatial data for topographic characteristics, land properties and bioclimate variables were used as model inputs. Existing wetland locations in India were considered for training and testing the model. Results showed that the vulnerability of the Himalayan wetland would continue as the temperature increases and extreme precipitation events are likely to happen. High-altitude glacier melting can probably develop new wetlands in depressed mountain areas. It will increase the water holding and soil deposition potential of the Himalayan wetlands.