Multiparadigm Modeling Framework to Evaluate the Impacts of Travel Patterns on Electric Vehicle Battery Lifespan

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can help attain economic and environmental sustainability by reducing oil dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. However, several issues need to be addressed before EVs can become a popular vehicle choice among the general public. A key issue is the perpetual reduction in EV battery capacity caused by battery degradation over time with usage. This can lead to a reduced driving range and cause "range anxiety" for EV drivers. This becomes even more critical in developing countries where consumers are highly sensitive to battery replacement costs. Thus, to promote EVs in developing economies, policymakers and vehicle manufacturers need to develop attractive incentive schemes and warranty strategies preceded by a thorough assessment of the useable EV battery lifespan for a wide range of users. This paper develops a multiparadigm modeling framework to compute battery degradation for a large population of EVs by capturing the effects of travel patterns, traffic conditions, and ambient temperature. The proposed framework consists of four different building blocks: (i) a microscopic traffic simulation model to generate speed profiles, (ii) an EV power consumption model, (iii) a battery equivalent circuit model, and (iv) a semiempirical battery degradation model. The proposed framework can also be used to assess the battery life-cycle of electric-powered automated vehicles by adjusting their travel patterns accordingly. A case study is presented using travel diary data of around 700 households from the U.S. National Household Travel Survey of 2009 to simulate household travel patterns and corresponding battery lifespan distribution.