A connectivity-based methodology for new air route identification

The change of routes at an airport has a huge impact on airlines' revenue and city economy where the airport is located. Planning a successful route is a complicated decision-making process that involves considerations beyond the origin and destination. Past studies rarely consider how the addition of new routes or revision of existing routes affects the global aviation network and consequently impacts direct and transfer demands. A new data analytic approach is proposed to identify new and long-lasting routes and to assess connection quality from the global network perspective. It includes a comprehensive methodology for analysing the aviation network, evaluating potential route quality, deciding which routes warrant the selection, and estimating the long-and-short term traffic volume forecasts of the selected new routes. Seven attributes have been developed for route selection, covering growth, volume and connectivity-potential. Assessing connectivity potential permits the evaluation of the importance of a potential destination airport by considering the changes in competitive position that other airports connected to the same destination can expect when that new route is added to the network. This approach exploits the geographical relationships between airports and combines the network route supply data over a 9-year period to make assessment decisions on new destinations. A list of promising new destinations is created that can enhance the origin airport's connectivity-potential and improve the competitive advantage of airports. Managerial implications are also proposed for different aviation stakeholders to facilitate their strategic planning on airport facility and capacity expansion, airline competition, multi-airport region collaboration and air service agreements.