Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality

Mitigation pathways play a vital role in realizing carbon neutrality. However, the complex relationships within the social system remain unclear, particularly the economic and energy effects on a macroeconomic level and the critical sectors. This study assesses the economic cost and energy transition effects of different policy scenarios based on an improved dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that (1) energy structure optimization (E2) and integrated policy scenarios could achieve the carbon neutrality target. In addition, carbon sink is another critical factor that can offset the remaining emissions. (2) Projected GDP losses in 2060 fluctuate from 0.7% in the carbon trading scenario (C1) to 4.92% in E2. Energy structure optimization and energy technology scenarios exert greater impacts on the power and iron and steel sectors. (3) The energy structure optimization scenario (high renewable HR: 9.23 billion tce) has the most significant impact on energy consumption, whereas the energy technology policy scenario (E2: 9.48 billion tce) has the smallest effect on energy consumption. (4) One integrated policy scenario (HRC4E2: 7.1 x 104 tons) has the most prominent air pollutant reduction potential, followed by LRC2E2 (25.0 x 104 tons) and HRC3E1 (10.1 x 104 tons).